The EB-2 NIW approval rate in 2026 remains substantially lower than in earlier years. Calculations based on USCIS decision counts show an approval share of about 95.7 percent in FY2022 and 55.2 percent for FY2025. Combining the first two quarters of FY2026 produces an approval share of approximately 45.5 percent.
That number is not a personal probability of approval. Cases decided in a quarter may have been filed in different periods. Filing volume, petition profiles, premium-processing use, and the pending inventory also change over time. The percentage only describes the distribution of decisions issued during the measured period.
For a broader eligibility framework, see Clinch Law’s complete NIW profile evaluation guide. The discussion below uses data as context and then returns to the governing Dhanasar test.
EB-2 NIW Approval Rate 2026: What the Data Shows
USCIS releases Form I-140 data in quarterly workbooks. The commonly quoted approval rate is calculated by dividing approvals by approvals plus denials. Pending petitions are excluded. USCIS publishes the underlying counts; the percentage is a calculation.
| Period | Approved | Denied | Calculated approval share |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | 10,316 | 468 | 95.7% |
| FY2023 | 31,889 | 8,172 | 79.6% |
| FY2024 | 27,526 | 11,256 | 71.0% |
| FY2025 | 19,532 | 15,863 | 55.2% |
| FY2026 Q1 | 2,380 | 3,206 | 42.6% |
| FY2026 Q2 | 3,042 | 3,283 | 48.1% |
| FY2026 first half | 5,422 | 6,489 | 45.5% |
The first-half line combines Q1 and Q2 and is not a complete fiscal-year rate. USCIS added FY2026 Q3 workbooks to its data library on September 8, 2026. However, the I-140 workbooks do not all present E21, NIW, and country data in the same way. An analyst should confirm NIW-specific approval and denial rows before using a general EB-2 total as an NIW rate.
For that reason, this article displays the NIW decision series verified through FY2026 Q2 and links to the current Q3 library. The chart should be updated using the same formula once the NIW-specific Q3 decision rows are validated.
Why the Decline Does Not Prove a New Legal Test
Matter of Dhanasar still governs. A petitioner must establish that the proposed endeavor has substantial merit and national importance, that the person is well positioned to advance it, and that waiving the job offer and labor certification requirements would benefit the United States on balance.
The petition pool and agency guidance have changed. NIW filings increased sharply after FY2022. More entrepreneurs and private-sector professionals filed cases based on the importance of an occupation or broad job-creation claims. USCIS’s January 15, 2025 Policy Manual update gave more explicit guidance on the distinction between an occupation and a specific proposed endeavor and on evaluating business plans, support letters, and entrepreneurial evidence.
The lower decision share may reflect several overlapping factors:
- More filings and a wider range of petitioner profiles.
- Confusing an important industry with a nationally important endeavor.
- Template narratives that do not connect claims to evidence.
- Limited proof of progress, interest, resources, or execution capacity.
- More detailed application of the existing test under updated guidance.
None of these points means every petition receives the same treatment. Clinch Law’s EB-2 NIW frequently asked questions explains why one résumé metric cannot decide the case.
Does USCIS Publish the “Top Five NIW RFE Reasons”?
No. The public USCIS I-140 workbooks do not rank NIW RFE reasons or assign a percentage to each ground. The five areas below are therefore not an official frequency table. They are recurring legal and evidentiary issues reflected in the Policy Manual, Dhanasar, and published AAO decisions.
An RFE is not a denial. It asks for evidence or explanation concerning a specific issue. A strong response answers that issue directly rather than adding pages that do not cure the identified gap.
Five Recurring RFE Areas and Example Corrections
1. The underlying EB-2 threshold is incomplete
Before the waiver analysis, the person must qualify as an advanced-degree professional or an individual of exceptional ability. A bachelor’s degree plus five years of progressive experience requires evidence that the experience followed the degree, relates to the specialty, and reflects increasing responsibility.
Weak filing: A diploma and short employer letters listing only dates and titles.
Better response: Detailed duties, full-time status, promotions, increasing responsibility, the relationship to the specialty, and a credential evaluation when needed.
2. The proposed endeavor is vague or merely an occupation
“I will work as a software engineer” describes an occupation. It does not identify the problem, method, users, outputs, or scope of the specific endeavor.
Weak filing: Reports proving that the industry matters, without a defined plan for the petitioner’s work.
Better response: A single consistent endeavor statement covering the objective, method, target users, reach, deliverables, success measures, and phased implementation.
3. National importance rests only on the field’s importance
Health, artificial intelligence, energy, and education can have substantial merit. USCIS still examines the prospective impact of the particular endeavor. A benefit limited to one employer or local client may be insufficient without evidence of broader implications.
Weak filing: Quoting a federal priority report without connecting it to the proposed work.
Better response: Use objective evidence to show scalability, industry-standard impact, critical supply-chain relevance, public benefit, a replicable method, or economic effects beyond a local engagement.
4. The petitioner is not shown to be well positioned
Dhanasar’s second prong is not simply a strong-résumé test. USCIS considers the connection between past results and the future endeavor, a plan, progress, and interest from customers, users, investors, or institutions.
Weak filing: Similar recommendation letters, an unsupported business plan, and promises of future work.
Better response: Connect prototypes, pilots, contracts, letters of intent, revenue, funding, licenses, data, comparable results, and independent expert evidence in one proof map.
Clinch Law’s guide to EB-2 NIW without a Q1 publication explains how non-academic evidence may support this prong.
5. The waiver balance is not explained
The third prong requires more than saying the United States needs workers. USCIS evaluates why waiving the job offer and labor certification requirements would be beneficial in light of this endeavor and this person’s position.
Weak filing: Relying only on a labor shortage or the desire to begin work quickly.
Better response: Explain and document why the endeavor spans employers, partners, or regions; why independent action matters; what urgency or distinctive contribution exists; and why the traditional job-offer framework does not fit the endeavor.
Common Profiles in Denied Petitions
AAO non-precedent decisions bind only the parties to those cases. They cannot produce a national success rate. However, their reasoning helps identify recurring structural weaknesses.
Strong résumé, uncertain future work
A person may have degrees, experience, awards, or publications. If the U.S. endeavor remains unclear, the Dhanasar analysis is incomplete. NIW is a forward-looking waiver, not an award for past achievement.
A local business labeled as national
A consulting firm or small business can create economic value. Broad job-creation forecasts without customer, market, or scaling evidence may not establish national importance. The 2025 USCIS guidance says general claims about economic benefit and potential jobs do not establish an entrepreneur’s eligibility by themselves.
Recommendation letters used instead of objective evidence
Letters can explain technical context. Repetitive letters with no data, unclear independence, or unsupported conclusions do not replace contracts, products, citations, revenue, funding, or institutional interest.
A metric treated as an automatic threshold
Twenty citations, an H-index of 3, or a high salary does not guarantee approval. Their absence does not automatically cause denial either. Clinch Law’s analysis of whether an H-index of 3 is enough for NIW shows how metrics must connect to the endeavor.
Dates and scope conflict across the record
If the petition letter, endeavor statement, business plan, résumé, and expert letters describe different roles, sectors, or timelines, credibility suffers. An RFE response should not invent a new endeavor. It should clarify eligibility as it existed at filing.
How to Build a 2026 NIW Petition
- Select and prove the underlying EB-2 path first.
- Define the endeavor in one concrete, measurable, forward-looking paragraph.
- Create a separate claim-and-evidence chart for each Dhanasar prong.
- Connect government priority reports directly to the personal project.
- Show the bridge from past results to future execution.
- Support recommendation letters with independent records.
- Source revenue, hiring, and market projections in any business plan.
- Reconcile dates, duties, sectors, and objectives across every exhibit.
- Write an answer to the strongest likely denial argument before filing.
- Remember that premium processing changes timing, not the standard.
Clinch Law’s guide explaining how NIW works without a job offer provides additional context for the waiver itself.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the NIW approval rate in 2026?
The calculated share was about 42.6 percent in FY2026 Q1 and 48.1 percent in Q2. The combined first-half figure was about 45.5 percent. These are not personal odds.
Did USCIS publish Q3 FY2026 data?
USCIS added FY2026 Q3 I-140 workbooks to its data library on September 8, 2026. A valid NIW rate requires NIW-specific decision rows, not a general EB-2 or country total.
Does USCIS publish the most common NIW RFE reasons?
There is no public official table ranking NIW RFE reasons. The five sections above summarize recurring legal evidence areas, not frequency statistics.
Does an RFE mean denial?
No. It is a request for evidence or explanation. The response must address the identified element with timely, consistent, reliable proof.
Can a person without publications win NIW in 2026?
Publications are not a statutory requirement. Products, contracts, patents, project results, users, revenue, funding, standards work, and independent interest may provide alternative evidence.
Does premium processing increase approval chances?
No. It accelerates USCIS action on Form I-140. It does not lower the legal standard or change the burden of proof.
Conclusion
The decline in the EB-2 NIW approval share is real, but it does not predict an individual result. The data describes decisions issued during a period. It also shows why petitions built mainly on industry importance and template letters face more visible difficulty.
A 2026 petition should separately prove the underlying EB-2 threshold, a specific endeavor, national importance, the person’s positioning, and the waiver balance. Use the statistics to locate the weakest legal link in the record, not to manufacture fear or promise a result.
Legal Information Notice
This article provides general information and does not create individualized legal advice or guarantee an approval probability.
